Ketchikan, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

775
FXAK67 PAJK 250007
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
407 PM AKDT Sun May 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- An unseasonably strong system impacts the southern half of the
  panhandle through Sunday night. With bands of rain and gale
  force winds in Dixon Entrance, and breezy conditions for
  southern Prince of Wales and Annette Islands.

- Conditions improve Monday as the system departs, with clearing
  skies and warm daytime temperatures taking hold. Monday looks to
  be the nicest day of the week with daytimes temperatures
  reaching the mid to high 60s.

- Another front arrives into the N Panhandle by Tuesday afternoon
  into mid week, bringing another round of rain and wind to
  communities along the coast and along and north of the Icy
  Strait Corridor through Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../through Tuesday/
The panhandle this Sunday is a study in meteorological contrasts.
On one hand, drier weather and sunnier skies are in abundance
across the northern half of the area as NW flow becomes
predominant, bringing with them warmer daytime temperatures. On
the other hand, a warm front moving across the southern panhandle
is bringing with it increasing rain and windy conditions which
will last through Sunday night. NBM guidance is pointing towards
anywhere from 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain with this system for areas
from Sumner Strait southward, with the greatest totals for the
far southern panhandle. Given the easterly flow, am not too
concerned with significant orographic enhancement in areas of
elevated topography, though will continue to closely monitor in
case the situation changes.

Winds across the southern panhandle with this system will feature
gusts up to 35 mph, though occasional gusts of up to 40 mph are
possible, especially for areas around Ketchikan and Annette
Island. Gale force winds continue Sunday night through the Dixon
Entrance, Southern Clarence Strait, and near the Sumner Strait
Ocean entrance, with northerly winds of 15 to 20 kt for the
central and northern inner channels.

The precipitation along with most of the winds, depart through
Monday morning as the front and its parent low move into Canada.
By Monday afternoon clearer skies, drier weather, and warmer
temperatures will be in abundance across SE AK, barring a few
isolated showers.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday night through Friday/
A weak warm front is expected to move over the panhandle from
north to south, beginning Tuesday evening. This front is preceding
its parent low, which is currently tracking along the Aleutians
and into Bristol Bay. Guidance now suggests the low is moving
slower than initially thought and will likely not cross into the
Gulf of Alaska until late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
When it does arrive, it is expected to dissipate as it reaches the
central Gulf due to weaker upper-level support. The movement of
this low will be associated with significant southwesterly fetch
and longer wave periods in our outer marine zones. Refer to the
marine discussion for more information.

The front`s primary impacts will be felt across the northern
panhandle, bringing moderate rain showers on Wednesday. This is
attributed to proper instability accompanying the frontal passage,
decent low-level lapse rates, and moisture advection into the
inland areas. 24-hour precipitation totals from Tuesday evening
into Wednesday evening are expected to be highest inland, along
the windward side of the Coast Range, and along the northeast Gulf
coast. There is high confidence (80%) in total precipitation
ranging from 0.65 to 1.0 inches across these areas, while other
parts of the panhandle are forecasted to see 0.45 inches or less.
Windier conditions are anticipated in Lynn Canal, Taiya Inlet, and
Stephens Passage. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 knots are forecast
to peak Tuesday night and Wednesday as the front moves through.
Frederick Sound is less likely to experience a significant
increase in winds due to the general north-south orientation of
the pressure gradient and weak ridging over the southern panhandle
and Haida Gwaii region.

Later in the week, ridging is expected to build over a greater
portion of the panhandle, following the front and the dissipation
of the Gulf low. This transition will lead to more zonally
oriented onshore flow and relatively benign light rain. While
minor warming is anticipated to begin mid week into the weekend,
temperatures will still remain seasonably cooler.

&&

.AVIATION.../through 00z Tuesday/
Predominate VFR flight conditions ongoing this afternoon with SKC
to FEW deck along and north of the Icy Strait Corridor terminals
in contrast to increasing cloud cover and rain moving into the
southern panhandle ahead of an approaching front. Expecting 2
separate regimes moving into the evening with flight conditions
degrading to upper end MVFR to VFR across the S Panhandle
terminals as aforementioned low moves south of Haida Gwaii,
extending an occluding front northward into the S panhandle. For
the northern panhandle TAF sites, along and north of a line from
Sitka to Juneau, VFR conditions will continue with a FEW to SCT
mid lvl deck and winds around 10kts and gusts up to 20kts.

Main aviation impact will for the S Panhandle, along and south of
Petersburg to Kake with slight visby drops within heavier showers
and light to moderate E-ly LLWS for PAKW, PAKT through 09z this
evening being the primary threats. Forecast winds for S Panhandle
terminal sustained winds 15 to 25kts with gusts up to 30kts,
potential for higher sporadic 35 kt gusts near Metlakatla,
Ketchikan, and Hydaburg.

Widespread aviation conditions increase through Monday afternoon
with clearing skies from N to S and VFR flight conditions
prevailing into the early afternoon as low departs south of the
area and surface ridging moves in. Monday will likely be the best
conditions for aviation through the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside: A 980mb low located 200 miles SW of Haida Gwaii
continues to track E across the N Pacific this afternoon, and is
forecast to track just S of Haida Gwaii tonight into early Monday
morning. The associated gale force front with this system will
stall over the SEAK panhandle through this evening as it occludes,
keeping a predominate SE to E-ly wind regime across the S
panhandle inner channels and coastal waters through the evening
before eventually turning more N-ly overnight into Monday as low
tracks south away from the area and off-shore conditions develop.
Marine interests along coastal PoW and S Clarence should remain
aware, buoys across central Gulf and near Dixon Entrance are
reporting sustained winds 30 to 35 kts with gusts up to 45kts.
Mariners should continue to take caution along the S Panhandle
coast with Gale Warnings issued through this evening. For Monday,
winds become NW along the coast between 15 to 25kts with wave
heights 8 to 11 kts as low continues to track SE away from the
area.

Inside: A strong front continues to push into the S Panhandle
inner channels through Sunday night as a low moves towards Haida
Gwaii, with reported sustained winds around 20kts and gusts up to
30 kts S of Gravina Island. As this low moves south of the
Panhandle through tonight, anticipate northerly winds to build
through the S inner channels along and south of Frederick Sound,
likely reaching moderate to fresh breezes, especially in Chatham
and Sumner. Overall inner channel winds diminish overnight into
Monday morning as the low tracks south with surface high pressure
moving eastward over the area. With clearing skies, anticipating
typical afternoon sea breezes to develop around 10 to 15kts,with
stronger winds around 20kts expected in Lynn Canal.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661-662.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-035-036-053-642>644-651-652-663-
     664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GFS
LONG TERM...BAS
AVIATION...NM
MARINE...NM

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