Ketchikan, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

002
FXAK67 PAJK 041832
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1032 AM AKDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.UPDATE... After 18z TAF issuance ... Remains of the feature over
the southern panhandle moving through yesterday (Friday) IFR to
MVFR ceilings, a few pockets of 500 feet near eastern Fredrick
Sound, being the Kake to Petersburg area with ceiling to up to
2500 ft for the southern panhandle. They will slowly lift during
the day. Northern panhandle are ceiling above 4000 feet. Expect
in winds in the Lynn Canal to increase again afternoon and evening
from Thermal sea breeze effects, that could result in turbulence
and perhaps local minor wind shear for the Haines and Skagway
areas. that should settle just before sunset after the peak
heating.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION......ISSUED AT 521 am Sat Jul 4...

SYNOPSIS...

Key Messages:

- More benign weather with a slight chance for rain showers and
  breaks in the clouds are in store for the Fourth of July.

- A stronger low pressure system and front will impact the
  panhandle later Sunday into early next week. This system is
  expected to bring widespread rain, potentially heavy across
  southern panhandle, and gusty winds.

- Outer coastal and inner channel winds and seas will also
  increase and become elevated with the strong low pushing through
  the Gulf.


SHORT TERM.../through Sunday night/...Low pressure near Haida
Gwaii will continue to push away from SEAK today, with showers
over the southern panhandle diminishing through the day. Partial
clearing and light winds further north have allowed fog patchy
fog to develop, with dense fog near Angoon. Behind the departing
system, surface ridging and weak onshore flow will set up for the
4th of July. Some breaks in clouds are expected, but a few light
showers and sprinkles will be possible. Winds will be light
tonight and any clearing could lead to more fog development.
Pre-frontal showers look to increase on Sunday ahead of stronger
low approaching SEAK. A front extending from the low will lift
northeast towards the panhandle late Sunday night, with rain
becoming widespread over the panhandle by daybreak Monday.
Moderate to heavy rain, along with breezy winds, will be possible,
mainly across the southern panhandle. Slightly warmer temps this
weekend with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/...The stronger system
impacting the panhandle Sunday night through Monday continues to be
the main focus for the long term, as it brings moderate to heavy
rain and gusty winds for the southern panhandle Monday. The
unseasonably strong upper level low will move into the Gulf by
Sunday night and gradually move southeastward into the beginning
of the week, as two fronts move across the panhandle from a main
low developing in the western Gulf before moving into the central
/ eastern Gulf Sunday / Monday. The first will push through Sunday
night into Monday morning, followed closely by the second front
midday Monday into Monday night after the low moves into the
eastern Gulf.

The second of these fronts appears to be stronger, as the upper
level low pushes a vorticity max over the area during the day
Monday, and as a jet max sets up over the southern panhandle with
some divergence aloft coinciding more with this second wrap. This
second front will move S to N over the panhandle, with largely a S
to SE-ly component, looking to bring heavier rainfall to the far
southern panhandle alongside some elevated winds (15-20 mph with
gusts to 30 mph) to the southern coast. So far the 24 hr rainfall
accumulation for this system Monday will be highest for Annette
Island, Ketchikan, and PoW. At this time, the rainfall amounts look
most uncertain for the first front as well as during the onset of
the second wrap, but at this time are expected to be between 1.75
and 2.75 inches in 24 hours for Annette Island and Ketchikan, and
between 1 and 2 inches for PoW for the same period of time.

Rainfall amounts will depend heavily on the orientation of both
fronts, the influence of terrain, and the moisture availability and
IVT orientation as it pushes into the panhandle. And the system
itself remains largely uncertain on the timing of the fronts and
thunderstorm potential. The increased certainty on the location of
the heaviest rainfall being centered around the SE coastline around
Ketchikan, as well as today`s EFI table and the NBM EPFT chance of
exceeding the 2 and 5 yr RI this far out, has increased our
confidence on an unseasonably wet system that will continue to be
watched.

AVIATION...12Z TAFs... Overnight, conditions have been
inconsistent, ranging from IFR to VFR. Light winds and low level
moisture across the panhandle this morning are keeping CIGs lower
or low level clouds scattered near TAF sites. Periods of rain
showers across the southern panhandle are also impacting
visibilities, causing them to lower to 2 or 3 SM as rain moves
through. Conditions are expected to improve across the panhandle
this morning as a drier air moves in before the next system. Any
lingering precipitation is expected to clear through the morning.
Winds are expected to stay light across the panhandle and be
variable in directions. However, PAGY is expected to have gusty
conditions that will settle towards the end of the period.

MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Winds are expected to be light
and variable in direction today and tonight across the gulf.
Maximum winds are likely to be 10-15kts with strong southerly or
westerly components. Winds are then expected to become more
organized in direction as the next low pressure system moves into
the area. A front ahead of this low looks to move into the area
early Sunday morning, causing winds to increase and become
southeast in direction with speeds of 20-25kts and last through
Monday. Today, waves are not expected to exceed 5ft but are likely
to build to 8-9ft on Monday.

Inside (Inner Channels): Winds are expected to remain relatively
benign across the inner channels today except for Northern Lynn
Canal. A southerly sea breeze can be expected today with speeds
up to 18kts. By Sunday night, winds are expected to increase as a
frontal system moves across the panhandle. Overall, winds will be
shifty as the front passes through with wind speed up to around
15kts. Clarence Strait is expected to have elevated wind speed
Monday as winds are channeled up Dixon Entrance. Near the Dixon
Entrance, winds are likely to reach 20-25kts SE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ652-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...Contino
AVIATION...AGP
MARINE...AGP


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