Ketchikan, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

154
FXAK67 PAJK 212313
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
213 PM AKST Fri Feb 21 2025

.SHORT TERM...Another front and associated low is moving north this
afternoon bringing strong winds and rain to the Inner Channels.
As of the time of writing, places across the southern panhandle
have started to report rain as well as some gusty winds as the
front moves over. With warm temperatures across the area as well
as this storm originating from farther south, any precipitation
that does fall is expected to remain as rain with the exception
locations at elevation which could see some snow accumulations. As
this system moves into the gulf, another front wrapping around
the low will move into the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night. This will bring a reinforcing shot of winds and rain to the
area with the heaviest precipitation expected across the southern
panhandle.

.LONG TERM...Continued active pattern for the foreseeable future (essentially
until the end of next week) with multiple shortwaves troughs and
ridges moving over the eastern gulf, resulting in multiple systems
with small breaks in between. Whether good news or bad,
precipitation type looks to stay predominantly rain for the sea
level areas, with upper elevation roads in the northern panhandle at
risk of some snow development.

Sunday through Monday will see a system move up from the south,
bringing moderate to fresh breezes from the southeast and light to
occasionally moderate rainfall. No changes were made to the QPF
forecast, and minor changes were made to the marine forecast, mainly
to lower wind speeds in areas which are sheltered to a SE wind.
Monday night sees a transient ridge move over the panhandle,
bringing lighter winds and some fog potential. Kept fog chances over
land areas in the northern half of the panhandle as confidence is
not high on lower wind speeds over marine waters. It may very well
develop as a low stratus deck instead of proper fog.

Tuesday into Wednesday sees a possibly more impactful system moving
in from the south. Currently, the main source of uncertainty comes
from aloft directing flow, which seems to be bimodal in nature. The
first, more likely solution at around 60%, sees the directing flow
towards the southern panhandle. The second, directs the energy south
of the panhandle and toward Haida Gwaii. NAEFS ensemble guidance
with respect to climatology has surface winds around the 90th
percentile, and EPS EFI guidance has roughly 60% chance of seeing a
wind gust event greater than 60 mph in the southern panhandle. While
this is mainly focused over the marine areas, such as southern
Clarence Strait and Dixon Entrance, will continue to monitor the
potential going forward. Similarly for precipitation, the more
likely solution has higher rain totals at around 1.0-2.5 inches in a
24 hour period.

&&

.AVIATION...Advancing front with lowering CIG and VIS for southern
area airports dropping from MVFR to IFR for brief periods. Northern
areas kept mid level cloud deck and VFR conditions. Surface winds
picked up and LLWS developed for locations south of Frederick Sound
due to the front. Expecting steady state through the evening and
overnight  then improving conditions as the low weakens and exits the
area through the day Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...A gale force front continues to work northward this afternoon
bringing gusty winds and increased seas to the Inner Channels as
well as the outer coast waters. Combined seas along the outer coast
are expected to remain in the 10-15 ft range although an area of
larger seas could be possible with the strongest winds. For the
Inner Channels, passages that are oriented more North to South will
have higher seas with the front passing through. East to West will
have lower seas but could still see some significant seas,
especially for places like Cross Sound.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind until midnight AKST tonight for AKZ328-330.
     Strong Wind from Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon for
     AKZ330.
     Strong Wind until 3 PM AKST this afternoon for AKZ332.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ641-661-662-664.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-033>036-053-642>644-651-652-663-
     671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...PRB
MARINE...SF

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